Climate & Energy Policy

European Policy

Working Paper
EN
25.02.25

Energy Resilience in a Divided Union

How can Europe reduce dependence and volatility while avoiding new core–periphery divides?

Executive Summary

Europe’s energy resilience remains uneven. This summary draws on EU Energy Resilience and Vulnerabilities: Assessment and Policy Strategies (Guarascio, Reljic & Zezza, 2025), which analyses how structural differences across member states shape exposure to energy shocks and the capacity to adapt. The study distinguishes between vulnerability — the degree of exposure to disruptions and price volatility — and resilience — the ability to absorb and recover.

A single indicator cannot capture Europe’s energy reality. Using a multidimensional framework, the authors map EU countries across industrial structures, import dependence, supplier concentration, renewable capacities, and policy effort. The results reveal clear heterogeneity: countries with the greatest exposure often have the least fiscal and industrial-policy space to respond, while others combine lower exposure with stronger buffers.

Policy efforts have intensified but remain misaligned. Since 2022, national and EU-level measures such as RePowerEU have scaled up investment and diversification initiatives. Yet the balance between vulnerability and policy effort remains uneven, risking that resources fall short where exposure is highest and widening existing divides within the Single Market.

Resilience policy must match structure, not averages. Effective design requires tailoring instruments to national conditions—diversifying energy sources and suppliers while building capabilities in renewables and critical technologies. Monitoring should track exposure and buffers jointly to target support where it delivers the strongest long-term resilience and cohesion.

Policy Recommendations

  1. Use composite dashboards to track exposure (dependency, concentration, energy intensity) and buffers (renewables, capabilities, policy effort) and to target support.
  2. Align EU and national efforts with structural need: scale investment and diversification where vulnerability is high and buffers are weak.
  3. Pair supplier diversification with capability formation in renewables and key energy-related technologies to raise resilience.
  4. Protect and coordinate investment envelopes at EU level to avoid pro-cyclical cuts in high-vulnerability members.
  5. Regularly reassess policies against the dashboard to reallocate from low-impact to high-impact actions as conditions change.