Industrial Policy Needs Rules, Not Instincts

Executive Summary

Europe’s industrial policy revival needs clear rules for public spending. In “Evaluating Industrial Projects: ProLogium Technology Co in Dunkirk,” we apply a structured framework, BEST-Invest, to assess one of Europe’s largest recent subsidy-backed projects — a €5.2 billion solid-state battery plant in northern France supported by €1.5 billion in public aid. The case shows that large subsidies can be justified when they advance innovation, decarbonisation, and sovereignty — but only under strict conditions of transparency and accountability.

Industrial policy must go beyond job counting. Subsidies should be evaluated across four criteria — economic prosperity, territorial development, climate impact, and European sovereignty — recognising that no single project excels in all dimensions. Using this framework, the ProLogium project scores broadly positive but faces risks from technological immaturity and uncertain cost curves.

The project’s value lies in innovation and strategic autonomy. ProLogium strengthens France’s “battery valley,” creates roughly 3,000 direct jobs, and supports European control over next-generation battery technology. Yet with an estimated cost of €90,000 per job, employment alone cannot justify the subsidy. Its rationale rests on fostering industrial learning, reducing import dependence, and scaling a clean technology critical to mobility decarbonisation.

Conditionality is essential to credibility. Public aid should be linked to milestones in production, technology validation, and supply-chain localisation — and reversible if outcomes disappoint. The Dunkirk case demonstrates both the potential and the pitfalls of Europe’s new industrial activism.

Key Recommendations

Europe’s success in industrial policy will depend not on how much it spends, but on how wisely.

1. Evaluate subsidies through multi-criteria frameworks that balance prosperity, climate, territorial, and sovereignty goals.
2. Tie public aid to measurable milestones and ensure transparent monitoring.
3. Focus on innovation and sovereignty outcomes, not headline job numbers.
4. Leverage regional clustering to amplify returns and spillovers in strategic sectors.
5. Acknowledge technology risk: early-stage breakthroughs require patient, conditional public finance.