Can Public Spending on Social Infrastructure Boost Female Employment in Italy?

Executive Summary

Social infrastructure spending boosts growth, investment, and jobs. Using regional data from 2000–2019, the study shows that higher public expenditure on childcare, education, health, and social services raises GDP, private investment, and total employment across Italy. The effects persist over time, confirming that social infrastructure behaves as productive capital rather than a cost item.

Gender effects are positive but fragile. Public investment initially raises the female employment share, especially in regions with high unmet care needs. Yet after two to three years, men’s employment grows faster, limiting the long-term narrowing of the gender gap. High-skilled women benefit most, while gains for low-skilled women remain limited — reflecting structural barriers in job quality, care provision, and labour demand.

Regional capacity determines persistence. Impacts are strongest in the Mezzogiorno, where fiscal multipliers and care deficits are largest. But weak administrative capacity, limited staffing pipelines, and underdeveloped service networks reduce the persistence of effects. Without parallel investment in delivery systems, short-term boosts risk fading and regional divides may widen again.

Spending must translate into services and durable jobs. Social infrastructure delivers both growth and inclusion only when funds support real capacity: hiring, training, and stable employment in care, education, and health. Recognising these sectors as productive capital within fiscal planning would protect them from pro-cyclical cuts and align gender, regional, and macro objectives.

Policy Recommendations

1. Pair funding with service delivery capacity. Link new expenditure to concrete hiring, training and organisational expansion in childcare, elder care, health and education, so money translates into actual services and jobs.

2. Target regions with the highest unmet care needs. Prioritise the Mezzogiorno and other lagging regions, where the immediate employment effect is strongest, to support both gender inclusion and territorial convergence.

3. Protect social infrastructure in fiscal planning. Recognise care, childcare, education and health services as productive infrastructure in medium-term budgets, so they are not the first items cut during consolidation.

4. Design measures explicitly to support women’s labour market participation. Focus on services that reduce unpaid care burdens and enable continuous, formal employment for women — especially lower-skilled women, who benefit least under current dynamics.