Tipping Points: Sixteen Reasons Why Climate Policy Must Accelerate

Executive Summary

Climate tipping points are closer than commonly assumed. In total, 16 biophysical tipping elements have been identified which, when a threshold value is crossed, transition to a qualitatively different state, leading to far-reaching effects on the Earth system. Recent scientific evidence suggests that several Earth system tipping elements could be triggered already at around 1.5 °C of warming, and risks rising sharply beyond this threshold. Multiple tipping elements may also impact each other and unfold as tipping cascades.  

The window of opportunity to prevent tipping dynamics is closing this decade. Announced policies are not yet Paris-compatible, implying a non-trivial probability of crossing critical thresholds in the early 2030s. As tipping processes instantiate self-reinforcing feedbacks, tipping cannot be stopped once the threshold is crossed, even if emissions cease, and effects may be irreversible on human timescales.   

Social fragilities can lead to societal or humanitarian catastrophe even before biophysical tipping points are crossed. As ecological and social systems are tightly interconnected, climate hazards can reinforce pre-existing vulnerabilities – exposure, weak institutions, fragile infrastructure. Similarly, poorly designed responses can amplify climate shocks.  

The policy lens must shift from “if” to “how fast”. The scientific consensus has been updated: the  temperatures at which several tipping elements are likely to be crossed have been revised downwards, and interactions between tipping elements compound risks. Policy frameworks that discount these dynamics or rely on gradualism underestimate the need for rapid emissions cuts and resilience-building.  

Policy Recommendations

1. Prioritise effectiveness in mitigation to front-load emission cuts this decade. Select measures by their near-term abatement impact and delivery certainty, treat speed as a core criterion when devising policy.  
2. Reduce societal vulnerabilities alongside mitigation. Strengthen adaptation, critical infrastructure, and social protection to lessen the risk of cascading social and economic failures.  
3. Scale international cooperation and support for countries with fewer resources. Expand international collaboration and climate funding to lower global tipping risks and prevent destabilising spillovers.